AppleOption Week 25 - Portfolio Review

Archive for June 21st, 2008

Week 25 - Portfolio Review

June 21st, 2008. Posted by AppleOption

Week 25 of 2008 trading is finished. Examine the following year-to-date performance.

Apple NASDAQ S&P 500 Dow Jones
-8.67% -0.0% -9.34% -9.67%


Now, compare that performance to the AppleOption Portfolios!

AppleOption Short-Term Portfolio (STP)
      Started the January 2008 with $10,000
      Current portfolio value $13,745.77 (after commission/fees)
      Year-to-Date Gain 37.4%

AppleOption Long-Term Portfolio (LTP)
      Started the January 2008 with $25,000
      Current portfolio value $24,952.68 (after commission/fees)
      Year-to-Date Even 0.1%

AppleOption Auto-Trade Portfolio (ATP)
      Started the June 2008 with $10,000
      Average Percentage Gain per Trade: 20.5%
      Performance since Inception 100% Winning Trades


If you are not yet a member of AppleOption, sign-up today and discover how we trade. We’ll teach you by showing all of our portfolio trades in real-time. Join AppleOption Now!
 

Weekly Review of Portfolio Trades
     

AppleOption Short-Term Portfolio

The week was rather uneventful for the STP. We had nearly full coverage throughout the week. It was was just a game of patience… waiting until option expiration. Thankfully Friday brought a nice pull back to allow us to roll into July for nothing. The STP is balanced such that if Apple benefits from a good RIMM earning report next week, the portfolio will be able to follow.

AppleOption Long-Term Portfolio

The LTP has the objective of stable solid growth. Investors looking to learn from this portfolio would have an excellent starting point now. Purchasing LEAPS in anticipation for the next run in Apple as we have formed a good consolidation level this week. The LTP this week rolled our coverage into July. Unfortunately, the calls we roll endedWhile the post-WWDC fall out was painful for the portfolio, we are quickly getting back into a strongly leveraged position.

AppleOption Auto Trade Portfolio

In last week’s portfolio review, we stated, “Option expiration week may provide a opportunity, but patience will be rewarded.” This is exactly what happened!

The ATP is off to a fantastic start! We placed three trades this week that were all profitable momentum day trades. The first auto-trade only took 30 minutes to pull in 21.7% profit! Our second auto-trade was even better, we collected 42.8% profit in only 9 minutes! The third auto-trade was the demonstration of how important stop limits are when performing momentum day trades. The market can move against a trade very quickly. We almost collected 32.2% profit and as quickly as it came, it was taken back. Our stop limit would have protected the trade to maintain a 11.7% profit, however there was some routing issue with the broker. The trade was exited later for a penny loss and ThinkorSwim generously refunded all commission for the trade. This trade is considered breakeven, thus leaving us at a 100% winning trade average!

There is a lot of excitement about our newest portfolio. The AppleOption Auto Trade Portfolio (ATP) is offered through ThinkorSwim. Investors interested in following the AppleOption Auto Trade Portfolio will need to open a ThinkorSwim brokerage account as well as need an active AppleOption Membership. After both of these are set-up, then investors will be ready to activate the auto-trading service through ThinkorSwim. Each trader determines his/her individual risk tolerance by selecting a specific allocation type. For more information please refer to the AppleOption Auto-Trade Portfolio (ATP) page.

 
Technical Apple Review
     
  

Key Reference Points:
5-EMA: $178.05
20-EMA: $180.34
50-MA: $177.24
200-MA: $162.07
1st Resistance: $182.60 - triple
2nd Resistance: $189.30 - triple
1st Support: $167 - single
2nd Support: $161 - double

Investors looking to “time” an entry into Apple stock… Notice how we are currently trading lower than the 50-day moving average. Utilizing this entry point will likely result in a profitable trade. If one is hesitant here, then an entry anywhere near the 1st support level or 200-day moving average would be fantastic. However it might not pull back that far as we are getting ready for the next earnings cycle.

     
Up-Coming Earning Reports:

Apple will announce Quarter 3 earnings on July 24 (after July option expiration).

View which other companies releasing earnings next week

Wednesday, June 25
   - Monsanto - MON
   - Research in Motion - RIMM
Thursday, June 26
   - Palm - PALM

Notice RIMM & PALM announce next week which may impact how Apple trades during this period.

     
Analysis Reports:

Morgan Stanley: Raised its price target to $210 from $185, but stated in a bullish market shares would be trading at $278.
   - Wednesday June 18th

Citigroup: Increased its price target from $248 to $287 and has a “buy” rating.
Lehman Brothers: Raised its price target from $202 to $234 and kept its “overweight” rating.
   - Tuesday June 10th

     
Apple News:

AT&T is paying Apple $325 subsidy for every 3G iPhone sold. AT&T is showing “confidence in the iPhone’s ability to grow its subscriber base” by providing a subsidy that is more than 50% higher than other smart phones. Full Article.

AT&T 3G iPhone Pricing Policy will subsidize phones for $199 (8GB) and $299 (16GB) if you currently own an iPhone or are not a current AT&T customer. Current non-iPhone AT&T customers will have to qualify given TBA criteria. Full Article.

iTunes has sold over 5 billion songs and is serving 50,000 movies per day! The daily movie rate will translate to approximately 18 million yearly making iTunes the world’s most popular online movie store. Full Article.